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Systems ThinkingCore

Value Formation

Why some things matter more than others, based on what they change.

What this changes

To provide a framework for evaluating the real-world importance of an event, idea, or action.

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Core Idea

What feels important is not random. The value, or weight, of an event is a function of what it actually changes. The more something shifts behavior, systems, or outcomes, the more weight it carries. This model helps you distinguish between what is merely loud, recent, or frequent, and what is genuinely significant. Attention is not the same as importance.

The Value Framework

You can estimate the value of something by observing three factors. This is not a literal formula, but a way to structure your analysis.

Value ≈ Impact × Reach × Persistence

Impact

  • What does it actually change? (e.g., money, safety, daily behaviors, key decisions)

Reach

  • How far does it spread? (e.g., one person, a team, an entire system)

Persistence

  • How long do the effects last? (e.g., minutes, days, years)

Why It Matters

Without a framework, it's easy to get distracted by noise. Something can be everywhere (high reach) but change nothing (low impact). Think of a viral meme that is forgotten a day later (low persistence). Conversely, a quiet, unglamorous change to a core system can have low reach (only affects a few people) but massive, long-term impact and persistence. This model helps you allocate your attention to the things that have real weight.

Questions for Evaluation

When something seems important, ask:
  • What behaviors or decisions will actually be different because of this? (Impact)
  • How many people or systems will this touch? (Reach)
  • Will we still be feeling the effects of this in a month? A year? (Persistence)

Common Failure Mode

Confusing Attention with Impact

The most common error is to mistake the volume of conversation or the amount of attention paid to something for genuine importance. The media, social media, and internal drama are often high-reach, low-impact events. Using this framework allows you to stay grounded and focus on what is truly shaping the system.

Position in the system